Varbergs BoIS FC 1–2 Stockholm Internazionale

Varbergs BoIS FC

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Stockholm Internazionale

3/3/2025

Svenska Cupen · Group Stage - 3Håstens IP konstgräs

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Varbergs BoIS FC15%

×Draw21%

Stockholm Internazionale64%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Varbergs BoIS FCExpected goals in this matchStockholm Internazionale

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.80

1.95

Varbergs BoIS FC

0.80

Stockholm Internazionale

1.95

Stockholm Internazionale creates 144% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 5 away

1.00

creates per match

2.60

1.29

allows per match

0.60

creates per match

Varbergs BoIS FC

1.00

Stockholm Internazionale

2.60

allows per match

Varbergs BoIS FC

1.29

Stockholm Internazionale

0.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Varbergs BoIS FC+0.00on par

Stockholm Internazionale+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Varbergs BoIS FC ↓

Stockholm Internazionale →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–113%

0–212%

0–38%

0–44%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–02%

2–14%

2–24%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Varbergs BoIS FC or draw

36%

Varbergs BoIS FC or Stockholm Internazionale

79%

Draw or Stockholm Internazionale

85%

Winning margin

Varbergs BoIS FC wins by 2+

4%

Stockholm Internazionale wins by 2+

39%

Team goals

Varbergs BoIS FC 1+ goals

55%

Varbergs BoIS FC 2+ goals

19%

Varbergs BoIS FC 3+ goals

5%

Stockholm Internazionale 1+ goals

86%

Stockholm Internazionale 2+ goals

58%

Stockholm Internazionale 3+ goals

31%

Draw no bet

Varbergs BoIS FC (draw refunded)

19%

Stockholm Internazionale (draw refunded)

81%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Varbergs BoIS FC at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

Stockholm Internazionale away — creates 2.60, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Varbergs BoIS FC attack 1.00 + Stockholm Internazionale defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.80

Stockholm Internazionale attack 2.60 + Varbergs BoIS FC defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Varbergs BoIS FC scores more

15%

level

21%

Stockholm Internazionale scores more

64%

Stockholm Internazionale at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Stockholm Internazionale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff