Varbergs BoIS FC vs Malmo FF — Allsvenskan 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 61+ matches
Varbergs BoIS FC27%
Malmo FF48%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Malmo FF creates 39% more chances
Season form · 61 home / 127 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over51
- Under49
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes54
- No46
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Varbergs BoIS FC ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Varbergs BoIS FC at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.56 · 61 matches
Malmo FF away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.17 · 127 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Varbergs BoIS FC attack 1.10 + Malmo FF defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.14
Malmo FF attack 1.63 + Varbergs BoIS FC defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.59
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 48%?"
Malmo FF at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 48% does not mean "Malmo FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Varbergs BoIS FC substitutes
Head to Head
AIK Stockholm
IFK NorrkopingMalmo FF
Hammarby FF
BK Hacken
Ostersunds FK
Djurgardens IF
GIF Sundsvall
Orebro SK
Kalmar FF
IFK Goteborg
IF Elfsborg
Sirius
IF Brommapojkarna
Dalkurd FFIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Varbergs BoIS FC host Malmo FF on Thursday, 4 May 2023 at 17:00. The match is part of the Allsvenskan 2026/2027 season.
Match Recap: Varbergs BoIS FC vs Malmo FF
Malmo FF beat Varbergs BoIS FC 6-0 in Allsvenskan on May 4, 2023.
Goals: H. Larsson (3'), S. Rieks (5'), S. Nanasi (11', 49', 83' pen), T. Ali (59').
Malmo FF controlled possession (70%) and registered 12 shots to 6.
The match was played at Varberg Energi Arena in Varberg.