Varbergs BoIS FC 1–1 Malmo FF: Result & Stats

Varbergs BoIS FC

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Malmo FF

R. Simovic 29'

V. Birmančević 43'

10/24/2021

Allsvenskan · Round 24Varberg Energi Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Varbergs BoIS FC27%

×Draw25%

Malmo FF48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Varbergs BoIS FCExpected goals in this matchMalmo FF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

1.60

Varbergs BoIS FC

1.13

Malmo FF

1.60

Malmo FF creates 42% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 124 away

1.10

creates per match

1.65

1.56

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Varbergs BoIS FC

1.10

Malmo FF

1.65

allows per match

Varbergs BoIS FC

1.56

Malmo FF

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Varbergs BoIS FC+0.00on par

Malmo FF+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Varbergs BoIS FC ↓

Malmo FF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Varbergs BoIS FC or draw

52%

Varbergs BoIS FC or Malmo FF

75%

Draw or Malmo FF

73%

Winning margin

Varbergs BoIS FC wins by 2+

11%

Malmo FF wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Varbergs BoIS FC 1+ goals

68%

Varbergs BoIS FC 2+ goals

31%

Varbergs BoIS FC 3+ goals

11%

Malmo FF 1+ goals

80%

Malmo FF 2+ goals

47%

Malmo FF 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Varbergs BoIS FC (draw refunded)

36%

Malmo FF (draw refunded)

64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Varbergs BoIS FC at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.56 · 61 matches

Malmo FF away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.15 · 124 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Varbergs BoIS FC attack 1.10 + Malmo FF defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.13

Malmo FF attack 1.65 + Varbergs BoIS FC defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Varbergs BoIS FC scores more

27%

level

25%

Malmo FF scores more

48%

Malmo FF at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Malmo FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

32

J. Berget

Malmo FF · M

7.9

Match Events

21'

Tashreeq Matthews

29'

R. Simovic

32'

Albert Ejupi

43'

V. Birmančević↳ A. Christiansen

53'

Sergio Peña

55'

Oliver Stanisic

68'

A. Johansson← V. Karlsson

73'

M. Abubakari← E. Rakip

78'

Jean Carlos

82'

R. Tranberg← A. Ejupi

82'

A. Winbo← L. Le Roux

82'

A. Nalic← A. Čolak

83'

S. Karlsson Adjei← T. Matthews

84'

Eric Alexander Johansson

88'

A. Liljenbäck← Jean

90+5'

Malik Abubakari

90+3'

Adi Nalić

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

VarbergsMalmo

Overview

29%Possession71%

8Total Shots14

3Corners5

28Fouls13

Shots

8Total Shots14

5On Target4

2Off Target6

1Blocked4

6Inside Box6

2Outside Box8

Passing

29%Possession71%

226Total Passes574

127Accurate Passes466

56%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

28Fouls13

5Yellow Cards3

2Offsides5