Varbergs BoIS FC 1–0 Helsingborg: Result & Stats

Varbergs BoIS FC

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Helsingborg

J. Jonasson Westermark 69'

5/3/2025

Superettan · Round 6Paskbergsvallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Varbergs BoIS FC49%

×Draw25%

Helsingborg26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Varbergs BoIS FCExpected goals in this matchHelsingborg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.13

Varbergs BoIS FC

1.63

Helsingborg

1.13

Varbergs BoIS FC creates 44% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 11 away

1.54

creates per match

1.31

0.94

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Varbergs BoIS FC

1.54

Helsingborg

1.31

allows per match

Varbergs BoIS FC

0.94

Helsingborg

1.71

-0.32scores less than expected

finishing

-0.13scores less than expected

finishing

Varbergs BoIS FC-0.32scores less

Helsingborg-0.13scores less

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Varbergs BoIS FC ↓

Helsingborg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Varbergs BoIS FC or draw

74%

Varbergs BoIS FC or Helsingborg

75%

Draw or Helsingborg

51%

Winning margin

Varbergs BoIS FC wins by 2+

26%

Helsingborg wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Varbergs BoIS FC 1+ goals

80%

Varbergs BoIS FC 2+ goals

48%

Varbergs BoIS FC 3+ goals

22%

Helsingborg 1+ goals

68%

Helsingborg 2+ goals

31%

Helsingborg 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Varbergs BoIS FC (draw refunded)

65%

Helsingborg (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Varbergs BoIS FC at home — creates 1.54, concedes 0.94 · 9 matches

Helsingborg away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.71 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Varbergs BoIS FC attack 1.54 + Helsingborg defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.63

Helsingborg attack 1.31 + Varbergs BoIS FC defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Varbergs BoIS FC scores more

49%

level

25%

Helsingborg scores more

26%

Varbergs BoIS FC at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Varbergs BoIS FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

A. Winbo

Varbergs BoIS FC · M

7.7

Match Events

33'

41'

42'

61'

68'

I. Vidjeskog← O. Edlund

69'

J. Jonasson Westermark↳ E. Tellgren

74'

J. Birkfeldt← W. Loeper

74'

A. Akimey← B. Orn

77'

J. Lindner← E. Tellgren

77'

M. Tokich← A. Winbo

80'

Wilhelm Nilsson

84'

K. Appiah Nyarko← O. Alfonsi

90+5'

Milan Justin Silva Rasmussen

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

VarbergsHelsingborg

Overview

47%Possession53%

9Total Shots7

0.99Expected Goals (xG)0.60

6Corners2

18Fouls17

Shots

9Total Shots7

3On Target1

4Off Target3

1Blocked3

6Inside Box3

3Outside Box4

Passing

47%Possession53%

379Total Passes411

290Accurate Passes315

77%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

18Fouls17

3Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards0

1Offsides0

Superettan: Varbergs BoIS FC 1–0 Helsingborg

Varbergs BoIS FC beat Helsingborg 1-0 in Superettan on May 3, 2025.

Goals: J. Jonasson Westermark (69').

Helsingborg controlled possession (53%) and registered 7 shots to 9.

The match was played at Paskbergsvallen in Varberg.

Varbergs BoIS FC vs Helsingborg — Superettan 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Superettan: Varbergs BoIS FC 1–0 Helsingborg