Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Vaprus vs Vändra — Esiliiga A 2026

Vaprus
Vaprus
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Vändra
Vändra
5/30/2020Esiliiga AEsiliiga A · Round 2Pärnu Rannastaadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Vaprus62%
×Draw19%
Vändra19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vaprus
2.35
Vändra
1.22

Vaprus creates 93% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 14 away

creates per match

Vaprus
2.34
Vändra
1.36

allows per match

Vaprus
1.07
Vändra
2.36

finishing

Vaprus+0.00on par
Vändra+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vaprus ↓

Vändra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Vaprus or draw
81%
Vaprus or Vändra
81%
Draw or Vändra
38%

Winning margin

Vaprus wins by 2+
40%
Vändra wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Vaprus 1+ goals
90%
Vaprus 2+ goals
68%
Vaprus 3+ goals
41%
Vändra 1+ goals
70%
Vändra 2+ goals
34%
Vändra 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Vaprus (draw refunded)
77%
Vändra (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vaprus at home — creates 2.34, concedes 1.07 · 29 matches

Vändra away — creates 1.36, concedes 2.36 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vaprus attack 2.34 + Vändra defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 2.35

Vändra attack 1.36 + Vaprus defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Vaprus scores more
62%
level
19%
Vändra scores more
19%

Vaprus at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Vaprus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vaprus vs Vändra

Vaprus beat Vändra 4-1 in Esiliiga A on May 30, 2020.

The match was played at Pärnu Rannastaadion in Pärnu.