Vaprus 5–0 Rakvere Tarvas: Result & Stats

Vaprus

FT

5 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Rakvere Tarvas

5/19/2019

Esiliiga A · Round 11Pärnu Rannastaadion (Pärnu)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Vaprus77%

×Draw14%

Rakvere Tarvas9%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VaprusExpected goals in this matchRakvere Tarvas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.86

0.92

Vaprus

2.86

Rakvere Tarvas

0.92

Vaprus creates 211% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 18 away

2.50

creates per match

0.83

1.00

allows per match

3.22

creates per match

Vaprus

2.50

Rakvere Tarvas

0.83

allows per match

Vaprus

1.00

Rakvere Tarvas

3.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vaprus+0.00on par

Rakvere Tarvas+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vaprus ↓

Rakvere Tarvas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–16%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–07%

4–16%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Vaprus or draw

91%

Vaprus or Rakvere Tarvas

86%

Draw or Rakvere Tarvas

23%

Winning margin

Vaprus wins by 2+

56%

Rakvere Tarvas wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Vaprus 1+ goals

94%

Vaprus 2+ goals

77%

Vaprus 3+ goals

53%

Rakvere Tarvas 1+ goals

60%

Rakvere Tarvas 2+ goals

23%

Rakvere Tarvas 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Vaprus (draw refunded)

89%

Rakvere Tarvas (draw refunded)

11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vaprus at home — creates 2.50, concedes 1.00 · 34 matches

Rakvere Tarvas away — creates 0.83, concedes 3.22 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vaprus attack 2.50 + Rakvere Tarvas defence 3.22 → ÷2 → 2.86

Rakvere Tarvas attack 0.83 + Vaprus defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

Vaprus scores more

77%

level

14%

Rakvere Tarvas scores more

9%

Vaprus at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "Vaprus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff