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Vaprus vs Läänemaa Haapsalu — Cup 2020

Vaprus
Vaprusadvanced
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Läänemaa Haapsalu
Läänemaa Haapsalu
10/30/2024CupCup · Round of 16Pärnu Rannastaadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Vaprus76%
×Draw12%
Läänemaa Haapsalu12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vaprus
4.09
Läänemaa Haapsalu
1.69

Vaprus creates 142% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 7 away

creates per match

Vaprus
6.75
Läänemaa Haapsalu
3.00

allows per match

Vaprus
0.38
Läänemaa Haapsalu
1.43

finishing

Vaprus+0.00on par
Läänemaa Haapsalu+0.00on par

Total goals

92%Over
  • Over92
  • Under8

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

80%Yes
  • Yes80
  • No20

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vaprus ↓

Läänemaa Haapsalu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–01%
1–12%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–17%
4–26%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (7%) · grid covers 68% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
98%2%2.5
92%8%3.5
80%20%4.5
64%36%

Double chance

Vaprus or draw
88%
Vaprus or Läänemaa Haapsalu
88%
Draw or Läänemaa Haapsalu
24%

Winning margin

Vaprus wins by 2+
59%
Läänemaa Haapsalu wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Vaprus 1+ goals
98%
Vaprus 2+ goals
90%
Vaprus 3+ goals
74%
Läänemaa Haapsalu 1+ goals
82%
Läänemaa Haapsalu 2+ goals
50%
Läänemaa Haapsalu 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Vaprus (draw refunded)
86%
Läänemaa Haapsalu (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
78%
Both score & under 3
2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vaprus at home — creates 6.75, concedes 0.38 · 8 matches

Läänemaa Haapsalu away — creates 3.00, concedes 1.43 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vaprus attack 6.75 + Läänemaa Haapsalu defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 4.09

Läänemaa Haapsalu attack 3.00 + Vaprus defence 0.38 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Vaprus scores more
76%
level
12%
Läänemaa Haapsalu scores more
12%

Vaprus at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Vaprus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vaprus vs Läänemaa Haapsalu

Vaprus beat Läänemaa Haapsalu 3-0 in Cup on October 30, 2024.

The match was played at Pärnu Rannastaadion in Pärnu.