Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Vaprus vs Ararat — Cup 2026

Vaprus
Vaprusadvanced
FT
10 – 0
HT: 7 – 0
Ararat
Ararat
K. Kask 87', 34', 30'
V. Vallik 85'
M. Paalberg 82'
Mathias Villota 41'
H. Välja 26'
S. Kelder 20', 15', 5'
8/28/2024CupCup · Round of 32Pärnu Rannastaadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Vaprus86%
×Draw8%
Ararat6%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vaprus
4.75
Ararat
1.31

Vaprus creates 263% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 4 away

creates per match

Vaprus
6.75
Ararat
2.25

allows per match

Vaprus
0.38
Ararat
2.75

finishing

Vaprus+0.00on par
Ararat+0.00on par

Total goals

93%Over
  • Over93
  • Under7

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vaprus ↓

Ararat →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–10%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–01%
1–12%
1–21%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–03%
2–14%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–06%
4–18%
4–25%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 4–1 (8%) · grid covers 60% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
98%2%2.5
93%7%3.5
82%18%4.5
65%35%

Double chance

Vaprus or draw
94%
Vaprus or Ararat
92%
Draw or Ararat
14%

Winning margin

Vaprus wins by 2+
73%
Ararat wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Vaprus 1+ goals
99%
Vaprus 2+ goals
94%
Vaprus 3+ goals
82%
Ararat 1+ goals
73%
Ararat 2+ goals
38%
Ararat 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Vaprus (draw refunded)
94%
Ararat (draw refunded)
6%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
70%
Both score & under 3
2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vaprus at home — creates 6.75, concedes 0.38 · 8 matches

Ararat away — creates 2.25, concedes 2.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vaprus attack 6.75 + Ararat defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 4.75

Ararat attack 2.25 + Vaprus defence 0.38 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 86%?"

Vaprus scores more
86%
level
8%
Ararat scores more
6%

Vaprus at 86% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 86% does not mean "Vaprus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'
S. Kelder
15'
S. Kelder
20'
S. Kelder
26'
H. Välja
30'
K. Kask
34'
K. Kask
41'
Mathias Villota
82'
M. Paalberg
85'
V. Vallik
87'
K. Kask

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Vaprus 10–0 Ararat

Vaprus beat Ararat 10-0 in Cup on August 28, 2024.

Goals: S. Kelder (5', 15', 20'), H. Välja (26'), K. Kask (30', 34', 87'), Mathias Villota (41'), M. Paalberg (82'), V. Vallik (85').

The match was played at Pärnu Rannastaadion in Pärnu.