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Vanspor FK vs Sancaktepe Belediyespor — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Vanspor FK
Vanspor FK
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Sancaktepe Belediyespor
Sancaktepe Belediyespor
10/30/2019Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 4th RoundAtatürk Şehir Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Vanspor FK38%
×Draw30%
Sancaktepe Belediyespor32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vanspor FK
1.13
Sancaktepe Belediyespor
1.00

Vanspor FK creates 13% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

creates per match

Vanspor FK
1.25
Sancaktepe Belediyespor
1.00

allows per match

Vanspor FK
1.00
Sancaktepe Belediyespor
1.00

finishing

Vanspor FK+0.00on par
Sancaktepe Belediyespor+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vanspor FK ↓

Sancaktepe Belediyespor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Vanspor FK or draw
68%
Vanspor FK or Sancaktepe Belediyespor
70%
Draw or Sancaktepe Belediyespor
62%

Winning margin

Vanspor FK wins by 2+
16%
Sancaktepe Belediyespor wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Vanspor FK 1+ goals
68%
Vanspor FK 2+ goals
31%
Vanspor FK 3+ goals
11%
Sancaktepe Belediyespor 1+ goals
63%
Sancaktepe Belediyespor 2+ goals
26%
Sancaktepe Belediyespor 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Vanspor FK (draw refunded)
55%
Sancaktepe Belediyespor (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vanspor FK at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

Sancaktepe Belediyespor away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vanspor FK attack 1.25 + Sancaktepe Belediyespor defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.13

Sancaktepe Belediyespor attack 1.00 + Vanspor FK defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Vanspor FK scores more
38%
level
30%
Sancaktepe Belediyespor scores more
32%

Vanspor FK at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Vanspor FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vanspor FK vs Sancaktepe Belediyespor

Vanspor FK beat Sancaktepe Belediyespor 1-0 in Türkiye Kupası on October 30, 2019.

The match was played at Atatürk Şehir Stadyumu in Van.