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Vanspor FK vs Iğdır FK — 1. Lig 2018

Vanspor FK
Vanspor FK
Preview
16:00
Iğdır FK
Iğdır FK
5/8/20271. Lig1. Lig · Round 38Ataturk City Stadium
41%
Vanspor FK
model favours
41%27%32%
1–1
likely score
55%
under 2.5 goals
50%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Vanspor FK41%
×Draw27%
Iğdır FK32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vanspor FK
1.33
Iğdır FK
1.15

Vanspor FK creates 16% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 38 away

creates per match

Vanspor FK
1.32
Iğdır FK
1.34

allows per match

Vanspor FK
0.95
Iğdır FK
1.34

finishing

Vanspor FK+0.00on par
Iğdır FK+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vanspor FK ↓

Iğdır FK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Vanspor FK or draw
68%
Vanspor FK or Iğdır FK
73%
Draw or Iğdır FK
59%

Winning margin

Vanspor FK wins by 2+
19%
Iğdır FK wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Vanspor FK 1+ goals
74%
Vanspor FK 2+ goals
38%
Vanspor FK 3+ goals
15%
Iğdır FK 1+ goals
68%
Iğdır FK 2+ goals
32%
Iğdır FK 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Vanspor FK (draw refunded)
56%
Iğdır FK (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vanspor FK at home — creates 1.32, concedes 0.95 · 19 matches

Iğdır FK away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.34 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vanspor FK attack 1.32 + Iğdır FK defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.33

Iğdır FK attack 1.34 + Vanspor FK defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Vanspor FK scores more
41%
level
27%
Iğdır FK scores more
32%

Vanspor FK at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Vanspor FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
FK
LLWLW
FK
DLDWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Vanspor FK host Iğdır FK

May 8, 2027: Vanspor FK take on Iğdır FK in 1. Lig. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Vanspor FK host Iğdır FK at Ataturk City Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.