Vanspor FK 3–0 Iğdır FK: Result & Stats | 1. Lig

Vanspor FK

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Iğdır FK

1/24/2026

1. Lig · Round 22Ataturk City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Vanspor FK41%

×Draw27%

Iğdır FK32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vanspor FKExpected goals in this matchIğdır FK

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.15

Vanspor FK

1.33

Iğdır FK

1.15

Vanspor FK creates 16% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 38 away

1.32

creates per match

1.34

0.95

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Vanspor FK

1.32

Iğdır FK

1.34

allows per match

Vanspor FK

0.95

Iğdır FK

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vanspor FK+0.00on par

Iğdır FK+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vanspor FK ↓

Iğdır FK →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Vanspor FK or draw

68%

Vanspor FK or Iğdır FK

73%

Draw or Iğdır FK

59%

Winning margin

Vanspor FK wins by 2+

19%

Iğdır FK wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Vanspor FK 1+ goals

74%

Vanspor FK 2+ goals

38%

Vanspor FK 3+ goals

15%

Iğdır FK 1+ goals

68%

Iğdır FK 2+ goals

32%

Iğdır FK 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Vanspor FK (draw refunded)

56%

Iğdır FK (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vanspor FK at home — creates 1.32, concedes 0.95 · 19 matches

Iğdır FK away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.34 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vanspor FK attack 1.32 + Iğdır FK defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.33

Iğdır FK attack 1.34 + Vanspor FK defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Vanspor FK scores more

41%

level

27%

Iğdır FK scores more

32%

Vanspor FK at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Vanspor FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff