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Vanspor FK vs Esenler Erokspor — 1. Lig 2018

Vanspor FK
Vanspor FK
Preview
17:00
Esenler Erokspor
Esenler Erokspor
12/13/20261. Lig1. Lig · Round 18Ataturk City Stadium
Big match
39%
Esenler Erokspor
model favours
35%27%39%

Their last 5 meetings averaged just 0.8 goals

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
52%
under 2.5 goals
52%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Vanspor FK35%
×Draw27%
Esenler Erokspor39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vanspor FK
1.25
Esenler Erokspor
1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 38 away

creates per match

Vanspor FK
1.32
Esenler Erokspor
1.71

allows per match

Vanspor FK
0.95
Esenler Erokspor
1.18

finishing

Vanspor FK+0.00on par
Esenler Erokspor+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vanspor FK ↓

Esenler Erokspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Vanspor FK or draw
61%
Vanspor FK or Esenler Erokspor
73%
Draw or Esenler Erokspor
65%

Winning margin

Vanspor FK wins by 2+
15%
Esenler Erokspor wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Vanspor FK 1+ goals
71%
Vanspor FK 2+ goals
36%
Vanspor FK 3+ goals
13%
Esenler Erokspor 1+ goals
74%
Esenler Erokspor 2+ goals
38%
Esenler Erokspor 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Vanspor FK (draw refunded)
47%
Esenler Erokspor (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vanspor FK at home — creates 1.32, concedes 0.95 · 19 matches

Esenler Erokspor away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.18 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vanspor FK attack 1.32 + Esenler Erokspor defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.25

Esenler Erokspor attack 1.71 + Vanspor FK defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Vanspor FK scores more
35%
level
27%
Esenler Erokspor scores more
39%

Esenler Erokspor at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Esenler Erokspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Vanspor FK sit 14, Esenler Erokspor 3 in the table

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
FK
LLWLW
Erokspor
LDLWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Vanspor FK face Esenler Erokspor (1. Lig)

1. Lig returns with Vanspor FK hosting Esenler Erokspor. Match starts December 13, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Vanspor FK host Esenler Erokspor at Ataturk City Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.