Esenler Erokspor 0–0 Vanspor FK: Result & Stats

Esenler Erokspor

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Vanspor FK

1/17/2026

1. Lig · Round 21Esenler Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Esenler Erokspor47%

×Draw24%

Vanspor FK29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Esenler EroksporExpected goals in this matchVanspor FK

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.25

Esenler Erokspor

1.65

Vanspor FK

1.25

Esenler Erokspor creates 32% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 19 away

1.77

creates per match

1.42

1.08

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Esenler Erokspor

1.77

Vanspor FK

1.42

allows per match

Esenler Erokspor

1.08

Vanspor FK

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Esenler Erokspor+0.00on par

Vanspor FK+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Esenler Erokspor ↓

Vanspor FK →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Esenler Erokspor or draw

71%

Esenler Erokspor or Vanspor FK

76%

Draw or Vanspor FK

53%

Winning margin

Esenler Erokspor wins by 2+

24%

Vanspor FK wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Esenler Erokspor 1+ goals

81%

Esenler Erokspor 2+ goals

49%

Esenler Erokspor 3+ goals

23%

Vanspor FK 1+ goals

71%

Vanspor FK 2+ goals

36%

Vanspor FK 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Esenler Erokspor (draw refunded)

62%

Vanspor FK (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Esenler Erokspor at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.08 · 39 matches

Vanspor FK away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.53 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Esenler Erokspor attack 1.77 + Vanspor FK defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.65

Vanspor FK attack 1.42 + Esenler Erokspor defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Esenler Erokspor scores more

47%

level

24%

Vanspor FK scores more

29%

Esenler Erokspor at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Esenler Erokspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

25

C. Akbaba

Vanspor FK · G

9.2

Match Events

54'

Ömer Faruk Beyaz

61'

G. Kanga← O. Beyaz

61'

B. C. Kara← Jefferson

62'

M. Bingol← S. Hostikka

74'

Batuhan İşçiler

76'

R. Niyaz← R. Jack

76'

B. Lus← M. Faye

81'

H. Catakovic← O. Kayode

82'

H. Bilal← E. Bars

84'

Mikail Okyar

90+6'

M. Cavusoglu← S. Destici

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

EsenlerVanspor

Overview

63%Possession37%

13Total Shots4

1.70Expected Goals (xG)0.13

6Corners1

12Fouls16

Shots

13Total Shots4

7On Target1

4Off Target4

2Blocked0

10Inside Box2

3Outside Box2

Passing

63%Possession37%

508Total Passes303

400Accurate Passes214

79%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

0Saves7

Discipline

12Fouls16

2Yellow Cards1

3Offsides0