Vanspor FK 2–2 Elazığ Belediyespor FK

Vanspor FK

AET

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Elazığ Belediyespor FK

10/19/2022

Türkiye Kupası · 3rd RoundAtatürk Şehir Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Vanspor FK36%

×Draw27%

Elazığ Belediyespor FK36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vanspor FKExpected goals in this matchElazığ Belediyespor FK

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

Vanspor FK

1.25

Elazığ Belediyespor FK

1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 8 away

1.00

creates per match

1.50

1.00

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Vanspor FK

1.00

Elazığ Belediyespor FK

1.50

allows per match

Vanspor FK

1.00

Elazığ Belediyespor FK

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vanspor FK+0.00on par

Elazığ Belediyespor FK+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vanspor FK ↓

Elazığ Belediyespor FK →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Vanspor FK or draw

64%

Vanspor FK or Elazığ Belediyespor FK

73%

Draw or Elazığ Belediyespor FK

64%

Winning margin

Vanspor FK wins by 2+

16%

Elazığ Belediyespor FK wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Vanspor FK 1+ goals

71%

Vanspor FK 2+ goals

36%

Vanspor FK 3+ goals

13%

Elazığ Belediyespor FK 1+ goals

71%

Elazığ Belediyespor FK 2+ goals

36%

Elazığ Belediyespor FK 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Vanspor FK (draw refunded)

50%

Elazığ Belediyespor FK (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vanspor FK at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

Elazığ Belediyespor FK away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.50 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vanspor FK attack 1.00 + Elazığ Belediyespor FK defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.25

Elazığ Belediyespor FK attack 1.50 + Vanspor FK defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Vanspor FK scores more

36%

level

27%

Elazığ Belediyespor FK scores more

36%

Vanspor FK at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Vanspor FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff