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Vanspor FK vs Çorum FK — 1. Lig 2018

Vanspor FK
Vanspor FK
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Çorum FK
Çorum FK
2/7/20261. Lig1. Lig · Round 24Ataturk City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Vanspor FK39%
×Draw28%
Çorum FK34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vanspor FK
1.25
Çorum FK
1.15

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 57 away

creates per match

Vanspor FK
1.32
Çorum FK
1.35

allows per match

Vanspor FK
0.95
Çorum FK
1.18

finishing

Vanspor FK+0.00on par
Çorum FK+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vanspor FK ↓

Çorum FK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Vanspor FK or draw
66%
Vanspor FK or Çorum FK
72%
Draw or Çorum FK
61%

Winning margin

Vanspor FK wins by 2+
17%
Çorum FK wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Vanspor FK 1+ goals
71%
Vanspor FK 2+ goals
36%
Vanspor FK 3+ goals
13%
Çorum FK 1+ goals
68%
Çorum FK 2+ goals
32%
Çorum FK 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Vanspor FK (draw refunded)
53%
Çorum FK (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vanspor FK at home — creates 1.32, concedes 0.95 · 19 matches

Çorum FK away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.18 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vanspor FK attack 1.32 + Çorum FK defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.25

Çorum FK attack 1.35 + Vanspor FK defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Vanspor FK scores more
39%
level
28%
Çorum FK scores more
34%

Vanspor FK at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Vanspor FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Lig: Vanspor FK 3–1 Çorum FK

Vanspor FK beat Çorum FK 3-1 in 1. Lig on February 7, 2026.

The match was played at Ataturk City Stadium in Van.