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Vanspor FK vs Bodrum FK — 1. Lig 2018

Vanspor FK
Vanspor FK
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Bodrum FK
Bodrum FK
Jefferson 65', 49'
Bikoue 55'
I. Tarim 21'
2/19/20261. Lig1. Lig · Round 26Ataturk City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Vanspor FK38%
×Draw28%
Bodrum FK34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vanspor FK
1.20
Bodrum FK
1.11

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 57 away

creates per match

Vanspor FK
1.32
Bodrum FK
1.28

allows per match

Vanspor FK
0.95
Bodrum FK
1.07

finishing

Vanspor FK+0.00on par
Bodrum FK+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vanspor FK ↓

Bodrum FK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Vanspor FK or draw
66%
Vanspor FK or Bodrum FK
72%
Draw or Bodrum FK
62%

Winning margin

Vanspor FK wins by 2+
16%
Bodrum FK wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Vanspor FK 1+ goals
70%
Vanspor FK 2+ goals
34%
Vanspor FK 3+ goals
12%
Bodrum FK 1+ goals
67%
Bodrum FK 2+ goals
30%
Bodrum FK 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Vanspor FK (draw refunded)
53%
Bodrum FK (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vanspor FK at home — creates 1.32, concedes 0.95 · 19 matches

Bodrum FK away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.07 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vanspor FK attack 1.32 + Bodrum FK defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.20

Bodrum FK attack 1.28 + Vanspor FK defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Vanspor FK scores more
38%
level
28%
Bodrum FK scores more
34%

Vanspor FK at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Vanspor FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
JeffersonVanspor FKVanspor FK · M
8.6

Match Events

21'
I. Tarim↳ A. Habesoglu
49'
Jefferson↳ K. Mamah
54'
Mehmet Özcan
55'
Bikoue
58'
Can Kara Bekir
60'
Mustafa Erdilman
63'
E. Bilsel← M. Erdilman
63'
P. Brazao← O. Imeri
65'
Jefferson↳ S. Hostikka
68'
G. Usta← B. Isciler
70'
F. Apaydin← I. Tarim
75'
E. Secgin← B. C. Kara
76'
A. Demirol← Bikoue
77'
Pedro Brazão
79'
E. Bars← M. Ozcan
80'
A. Traore← Jefferson
82'
H. Osman← D. Hotic
82'
Y. Sertkaya← M. Yilmaz

Possession

59%Vanspor

Shots

9Vanspor

Pass accuracy

53%Vanspor

Statistics

VansporBodrum
Overview
59%Possession41%
9Total Shots12
2Corners2
13Fouls10
Shots
9Total Shots12
5On Target3
4Off Target7
0Blocked2
4Inside Box10
5Outside Box2
Passing
59%Possession41%
395Total Passes271
327Accurate Passes203
83%Pass Accuracy75%
Goalkeeping
2Saves2
Discipline
13Fouls10
2Yellow Cards2
7Offsides2

Match Recap: Vanspor FK vs Bodrum FK

Vanspor FK beat Bodrum FK 3-1 in 1. Lig on February 19, 2026.

Goals: I. Tarim (21'), Jefferson (49', 65'), Bikoue (55').

Vanspor FK controlled possession (59%) and registered 9 shots to 12.

The match was played at Ataturk City Stadium in Van.