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Vanløse vs Skovshoved — League #123 2026

Vanløse
Vanløse
FT
2 – 2
Skovshoved
Skovshoved
4/2/2019League #123League #123 · Round 17Vanløse IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Vanløse59%
×Draw22%
Skovshoved19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vanløse
1.98
Skovshoved
1.04

Vanløse creates 90% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 15 away

creates per match

Vanløse
1.44
Skovshoved
1.07

allows per match

Vanløse
1.00
Skovshoved
2.53

finishing

Vanløse+0.00on par
Skovshoved+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vanløse ↓

Skovshoved →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Vanløse or draw
81%
Vanløse or Skovshoved
78%
Draw or Skovshoved
41%

Winning margin

Vanløse wins by 2+
35%
Skovshoved wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Vanløse 1+ goals
86%
Vanløse 2+ goals
59%
Vanløse 3+ goals
31%
Skovshoved 1+ goals
65%
Skovshoved 2+ goals
28%
Skovshoved 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Vanløse (draw refunded)
75%
Skovshoved (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vanløse at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.00 · 9 matches

Skovshoved away — creates 1.07, concedes 2.53 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vanløse attack 1.44 + Skovshoved defence 2.53 → ÷2 → 1.98

Skovshoved attack 1.07 + Vanløse defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Vanløse scores more
59%
level
22%
Skovshoved scores more
19%

Vanløse at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Vanløse will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vanløse vs Skovshoved

Vanløse and Skovshoved drew 2-2 in League #123 on April 2, 2019.

The match was played at Vanløse IP in Vanløse.