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Vanløse vs Holbæk B&I — 3. Division 2021

Vanløse
Vanløse
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Holbæk B&I
Holbæk B&I
S. Pedersen 90'
A. Knaack 61'
M. Garly 47'
A. Hassan Ahmad 34'
9/20/20253. Division3. Division · Round 8Vanlose Idraetspark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Vanløse36%
×Draw26%
Holbæk B&I38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vanløse
1.30
Holbæk B&I
1.35

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 64 home / 48 away

creates per match

Vanløse
1.42
Holbæk B&I
1.44

allows per match

Vanløse
1.27
Holbæk B&I
1.19

finishing

Vanløse+0.00on par
Holbæk B&I+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vanløse ↓

Holbæk B&I →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Vanløse or draw
62%
Vanløse or Holbæk B&I
74%
Draw or Holbæk B&I
64%

Winning margin

Vanløse wins by 2+
16%
Holbæk B&I wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Vanløse 1+ goals
73%
Vanløse 2+ goals
37%
Vanløse 3+ goals
14%
Holbæk B&I 1+ goals
74%
Holbæk B&I 2+ goals
39%
Holbæk B&I 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Vanløse (draw refunded)
48%
Holbæk B&I (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vanløse at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.27 · 64 matches

Holbæk B&I away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.19 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vanløse attack 1.42 + Holbæk B&I defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.30

Holbæk B&I attack 1.44 + Vanløse defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Vanløse scores more
36%
level
26%
Holbæk B&I scores more
38%

Holbæk B&I at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Holbæk B&I will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

34'
A. Hassan Ahmad
47'
M. Garly
61'
A. Knaack
90'
S. Pedersen
Vanløse
Holbæk
J. Hjortshøj
Manager: J. Hjortshøj
Janus Blond
Manager: Janus Blond

3. Division: Vanløse 1–3 Holbæk B&I

Holbæk B&I beat Vanløse 3-1 in 3. Division on September 20, 2025.

Goals: A. Hassan Ahmad (34'), M. Garly (47'), A. Knaack (61'), S. Pedersen (90').

The match was played at Vanlose Idraetspark in Vanlose.