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Vanløse vs Hillerød — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Vanløse
Vanløse
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 3
Hillerød
Hillerød
Unknown 12', 5', 4'
Unknown 52'
1/21/2023Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Vanløse IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Vanløse36%
×Draw23%
Hillerød41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vanløse
1.56
Hillerød
1.69

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 16 home / 16 away

creates per match

Vanløse
1.44
Hillerød
1.56

allows per match

Vanløse
1.81
Hillerød
1.69

finishing

Vanløse+0.00on par
Hillerød+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vanløse ↓

Hillerød →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Vanløse or draw
59%
Vanløse or Hillerød
77%
Draw or Hillerød
64%

Winning margin

Vanløse wins by 2+
17%
Hillerød wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Vanløse 1+ goals
79%
Vanløse 2+ goals
46%
Vanløse 3+ goals
21%
Hillerød 1+ goals
82%
Hillerød 2+ goals
50%
Hillerød 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Vanløse (draw refunded)
46%
Hillerød (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vanløse at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.81 · 16 matches

Hillerød away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.69 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vanløse attack 1.44 + Hillerød defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.56

Hillerød attack 1.56 + Vanløse defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Vanløse scores more
36%
level
23%
Hillerød scores more
41%

Hillerød at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Hillerød will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'
5'
12'
52'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vanløse vs Hillerød

Hillerød beat Vanløse 3-1 in Friendlies Clubs on January 21, 2023.

Goals: ? (4', 5', 12', 52').

The match was played at Vanløse IP in Vanløse.