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Vänersborgs IF vs Säffle SK — Division 2 - Norra Götaland 2019

Vänersborgs IF
Vänersborgs IF
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Säffle SK
Säffle SK
5/24/2024Division 2 - Norra GötalandDivision 2 - Norra Götaland · Norra Götaland - 9Vänersvallen Nord

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Vänersborgs IF52%
×Draw23%
Säffle SK25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vänersborgs IF
1.85
Säffle SK
1.21

Vänersborgs IF creates 53% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 26 away

creates per match

Vänersborgs IF
1.47
Säffle SK
0.81

allows per match

Vänersborgs IF
1.60
Säffle SK
2.23

finishing

Vänersborgs IF+0.00on par
Säffle SK+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vänersborgs IF ↓

Säffle SK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Vänersborgs IF or draw
75%
Vänersborgs IF or Säffle SK
77%
Draw or Säffle SK
48%

Winning margin

Vänersborgs IF wins by 2+
29%
Säffle SK wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Vänersborgs IF 1+ goals
84%
Vänersborgs IF 2+ goals
55%
Vänersborgs IF 3+ goals
28%
Säffle SK 1+ goals
70%
Säffle SK 2+ goals
34%
Säffle SK 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Vänersborgs IF (draw refunded)
68%
Säffle SK (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vänersborgs IF at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.60 · 53 matches

Säffle SK away — creates 0.81, concedes 2.23 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vänersborgs IF attack 1.47 + Säffle SK defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 1.85

Säffle SK attack 0.81 + Vänersborgs IF defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Vänersborgs IF scores more
52%
level
23%
Säffle SK scores more
25%

Vänersborgs IF at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Vänersborgs IF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division 2 - Norra Götaland: Vänersborgs IF 2–1 Säffle SK

Vänersborgs IF beat Säffle SK 2-1 in Division 2 - Norra Götaland on May 24, 2024.

The match was played at Vänersvallen Nord in Vänersborg.