Vänersborgs FK 3–1 Säffle SK: Result & Stats

Vänersborgs FK

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Säffle SK

A. Karlsson 90+3'

M. Johansson 85'

J. Emanuelsson 81'

G. Haidar 90'

8/9/2024

Division 2 - Norra Götaland · Norra Götaland - 16Vänersvallen Nord

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Vänersborgs FK51%

×Draw22%

Säffle SK27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vänersborgs FKExpected goals in this matchSäffle SK

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.97

1.37

Vänersborgs FK

1.97

Säffle SK

1.37

Vänersborgs FK creates 44% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 26 away

1.71

creates per match

0.81

1.93

allows per match

2.23

creates per match

Vänersborgs FK

1.71

Säffle SK

0.81

allows per match

Vänersborgs FK

1.93

Säffle SK

2.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vänersborgs FK+0.00on par

Säffle SK+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vänersborgs FK ↓

Säffle SK →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Vänersborgs FK or draw

73%

Vänersborgs FK or Säffle SK

78%

Draw or Säffle SK

49%

Winning margin

Vänersborgs FK wins by 2+

29%

Säffle SK wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Vänersborgs FK 1+ goals

86%

Vänersborgs FK 2+ goals

58%

Vänersborgs FK 3+ goals

31%

Säffle SK 1+ goals

75%

Säffle SK 2+ goals

40%

Säffle SK 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Vänersborgs FK (draw refunded)

66%

Säffle SK (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vänersborgs FK at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.93 · 95 matches

Säffle SK away — creates 0.81, concedes 2.23 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vänersborgs FK attack 1.71 + Säffle SK defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 1.97

Säffle SK attack 0.81 + Vänersborgs FK defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Vänersborgs FK scores more

51%

level

22%

Säffle SK scores more

27%

Vänersborgs FK at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Vänersborgs FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

81'

J. Emanuelsson

85'

M. Johansson

90'

G. Haidar

90+3'

A. Karlsson

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff