Vändra 1–4 Pärnu: Result & Stats | Esiliiga A

Vändra

FT

1 – 4

HT: 1 – 3

Pärnu

10/31/2020

Esiliiga A · Relegation Round - 1Vändra kunstmurustaadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Vändra45%

×Draw21%

Pärnu34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VändraExpected goals in this matchPärnu

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.04

1.74

Vändra

2.04

Pärnu

1.74

Vändra creates 17% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 43 away

1.71

creates per match

1.12

2.36

allows per match

2.37

creates per match

Vändra

1.71

Pärnu

1.12

allows per match

Vändra

2.36

Pärnu

2.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vändra+0.00on par

Pärnu+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vändra ↓

Pärnu →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

52%48%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Vändra or draw

66%

Vändra or Pärnu

79%

Draw or Pärnu

55%

Winning margin

Vändra wins by 2+

25%

Pärnu wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Vändra 1+ goals

87%

Vändra 2+ goals

60%

Vändra 3+ goals

33%

Pärnu 1+ goals

82%

Pärnu 2+ goals

52%

Pärnu 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Vändra (draw refunded)

57%

Pärnu (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vändra at home — creates 1.71, concedes 2.36 · 14 matches

Pärnu away — creates 1.12, concedes 2.37 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vändra attack 1.71 + Pärnu defence 2.37 → ÷2 → 2.04

Pärnu attack 1.12 + Vändra defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 1.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Vändra scores more

45%

level

21%

Pärnu scores more

34%

Vändra at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Vändra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff