Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Vändra vs Nõmme United — Esiliiga A 2026

Vändra
Vändra
FT
3 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Nõmme United
Nõmme United
6/7/2020Esiliiga AEsiliiga A · Round 4Vändra staadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Vändra23%
×Draw18%
Nõmme United59%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vändra
1.58
Nõmme United
2.60

Nõmme United creates 65% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 78 away

creates per match

Vändra
1.83
Nõmme United
2.96

allows per match

Vändra
2.25
Nõmme United
1.33

finishing

Vändra+0.00on par
Nõmme United+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vändra ↓

Nõmme United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–25%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–28%
1–37%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

Vändra or draw
41%
Vändra or Nõmme United
82%
Draw or Nõmme United
77%

Winning margin

Vändra wins by 2+
10%
Nõmme United wins by 2+
39%

Team goals

Vändra 1+ goals
79%
Vändra 2+ goals
47%
Vändra 3+ goals
21%
Nõmme United 1+ goals
92%
Nõmme United 2+ goals
73%
Nõmme United 3+ goals
47%

Draw no bet

Vändra (draw refunded)
28%
Nõmme United (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vändra at home — creates 1.83, concedes 2.25 · 12 matches

Nõmme United away — creates 2.96, concedes 1.33 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vändra attack 1.83 + Nõmme United defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.58

Nõmme United attack 2.96 + Vändra defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Vändra scores more
23%
level
18%
Nõmme United scores more
59%

Nõmme United at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Nõmme United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vändra vs Nõmme United

Vändra and Nõmme United drew 3-3 in Esiliiga A on June 7, 2020.

The match was played at Vändra staadion in Vändra.