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Vändra vs Maardu — Esiliiga A 2026

Vändra
Vändra
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Maardu
Maardu
8/23/2020Esiliiga AEsiliiga A · Round 19Vändra staadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Vändra33%
×Draw21%
Maardu46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vändra
1.85
Maardu
2.20

Maardu creates 19% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 35 away

creates per match

Vändra
1.83
Maardu
2.14

allows per match

Vändra
2.25
Maardu
1.86

finishing

Vändra+0.00on par
Maardu+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vändra ↓

Maardu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
57%43%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Vändra or draw
54%
Vändra or Maardu
79%
Draw or Maardu
67%

Winning margin

Vändra wins by 2+
17%
Maardu wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Vändra 1+ goals
84%
Vändra 2+ goals
55%
Vändra 3+ goals
28%
Maardu 1+ goals
89%
Maardu 2+ goals
64%
Maardu 3+ goals
37%

Draw no bet

Vändra (draw refunded)
42%
Maardu (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vändra at home — creates 1.83, concedes 2.25 · 12 matches

Maardu away — creates 2.14, concedes 1.86 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vändra attack 1.83 + Maardu defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.85

Maardu attack 2.14 + Vändra defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Vändra scores more
33%
level
21%
Maardu scores more
46%

Maardu at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Maardu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vändra vs Maardu

Maardu beat Vändra 2-1 in Esiliiga A on August 23, 2020.

The match was played at Vändra staadion in Vändra.