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Vancouver Whitecaps vs U.N.A.M. - Pumas — CONCACAF Champions League 2018

Vancouver Whitecaps
Vancouver Whitecaps
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
4/3/2025CONCACAF Champions LeagueCONCACAF Champions League · Quarter-finalsBC Place

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Vancouver Whitecaps57%
×Draw24%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas20%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vancouver Whitecaps
1.75
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
0.93

Vancouver Whitecaps creates 88% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 8 away

creates per match

Vancouver Whitecaps
1.50
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
0.75

allows per match

Vancouver Whitecaps
1.10
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
2.00

finishing

Vancouver Whitecaps+0.00on par
U.N.A.M. - Pumas+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vancouver Whitecaps ↓

U.N.A.M. - Pumas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Vancouver Whitecaps or draw
80%
Vancouver Whitecaps or U.N.A.M. - Pumas
76%
Draw or U.N.A.M. - Pumas
43%

Winning margin

Vancouver Whitecaps wins by 2+
32%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Vancouver Whitecaps 1+ goals
83%
Vancouver Whitecaps 2+ goals
52%
Vancouver Whitecaps 3+ goals
25%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas 1+ goals
61%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas 2+ goals
24%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Vancouver Whitecaps (draw refunded)
74%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vancouver Whitecaps at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.10 · 10 matches

U.N.A.M. - Pumas away — creates 0.75, concedes 2.00 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vancouver Whitecaps attack 1.50 + U.N.A.M. - Pumas defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.75

U.N.A.M. - Pumas attack 0.75 + Vancouver Whitecaps defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Vancouver Whitecaps scores more
57%
level
24%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas scores more
20%

Vancouver Whitecaps at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Vancouver Whitecaps will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

CONCACAF Champions League: Vancouver Whitecaps 1–1 U.N.A.M. - Pumas

Vancouver Whitecaps and U.N.A.M. - Pumas drew 1-1 in CONCACAF Champions League on April 3, 2025.

The match was played at BC Place in Vancouver, British Columbia.