Vancouver Whitecaps II vs Real Monarchs — MLS Next Pro 2022
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 49+ matches
Vancouver Whitecaps II52%
Real Monarchs27%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Vancouver Whitecaps II creates 44% more chances
Season form · 51 home / 49 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over68
- Under32
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes67
- No33
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Vancouver Whitecaps II ↓
Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Vancouver Whitecaps II at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.71 · 51 matches
Real Monarchs away — creates 1.16, concedes 2.14 · 49 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Vancouver Whitecaps II attack 2.00 + Real Monarchs defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 2.07
Real Monarchs attack 1.16 + Vancouver Whitecaps II defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.44
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 52%?"
Vancouver Whitecaps II at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 52% does not mean "Vancouver Whitecaps II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
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Bethlehem Steel
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Chicago FC United
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Tacoma Defiance
St. Louis City II
Houston Dynamo FC II
North Texas
San Jose Earthquakes II
Minnesota United IIWhitecaps II
Colorado Rapids II
Swope Park RangersReal Monarchs
Portland Timbers IIIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Vancouver Whitecaps II host Real Monarchs on Sunday, 29 June 2025 at 23:00. The match is part of the MLS Next Pro 2022/2023 season.
MLS Next Pro: Vancouver Whitecaps II 2–3 Real Monarchs
Real Monarchs beat Vancouver Whitecaps II 3-2 in MLS Next Pro on June 29, 2025.
Goals: R. Mesalles (8'), M. O'Neill (14'), J. Castro (67'), L. Moisa (73'), M. Jennings (89').
The match was played at Swangard Stadium.