Vancouver Whitecaps II 2–2 Minnesota United II

Vancouver Whitecaps II

Pens

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 2

Minnesota United II

R. Antoniuk 120+1' (pen)

F. Emmings 44' (OG)

E. Iwe 28' (OG)

E. Iwe 120+8' (pen)

T. Williamson 120+6' (pen), 41' (pen)

A. Jackson 120+2' (pen)

A. Brown 12'

5/21/2022

MLS Next Pro · Round 9Swangard Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Vancouver Whitecaps II48%

×Draw21%

Minnesota United II31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vancouver Whitecaps IIExpected goals in this matchMinnesota United II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.11

1.66

Vancouver Whitecaps II

2.11

Minnesota United II

1.66

Vancouver Whitecaps II creates 27% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 54 away

2.00

creates per match

1.61

1.71

allows per match

2.22

creates per match

Vancouver Whitecaps II

2.00

Minnesota United II

1.61

allows per match

Vancouver Whitecaps II

1.71

Minnesota United II

2.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vancouver Whitecaps II+0.00on par

Minnesota United II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vancouver Whitecaps II ↓

Minnesota United II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

52%48%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Vancouver Whitecaps II or draw

69%

Vancouver Whitecaps II or Minnesota United II

79%

Draw or Minnesota United II

52%

Winning margin

Vancouver Whitecaps II wins by 2+

28%

Minnesota United II wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Vancouver Whitecaps II 1+ goals

88%

Vancouver Whitecaps II 2+ goals

62%

Vancouver Whitecaps II 3+ goals

35%

Minnesota United II 1+ goals

81%

Minnesota United II 2+ goals

49%

Minnesota United II 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Vancouver Whitecaps II (draw refunded)

61%

Minnesota United II (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vancouver Whitecaps II at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.71 · 51 matches

Minnesota United II away — creates 1.61, concedes 2.22 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vancouver Whitecaps II attack 2.00 + Minnesota United II defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 2.11

Minnesota United II attack 1.61 + Vancouver Whitecaps II defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Vancouver Whitecaps II scores more

48%

level

21%

Minnesota United II scores more

31%

Vancouver Whitecaps II at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Vancouver Whitecaps II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

A. Brown↳ A. Jackson

25'

A. Jackson

28'

E. IweOwn goal

31'

V. Fry

38'

M. Khan← C. Montgomery

40'

S. Becher

41'

T. WilliamsonPenalty

44'

F. EmmingsOwn goal

51'

C. Lee

57'

L. Fernandez-Salvador← T. Bah

72'

O. Antoniuk

78'

J. Herdman← V. Fry

78'

J. Hanson← F. Rakic

120+1'

R. AntoniukPenalty

120+2'

A. JacksonPenalty

120+3'

E. WhiteMissed penalty

120+4'

V. PetkovicMissed penalty

120+5'

G. AguilarMissed penalty

120+6'

T. WilliamsonPenalty

120+7'

J. HerdmanMissed penalty

120+8'

E. IwePenalty

Vancouver

Minnesota

99

🥅

Emmings

80

Petkovic

4

▼

Montgomer

54

Leatherma

98

Ramos

53

⚽

Brown

55

Gutiérrez

40

⚽2

Williamso

25

⚽A

Jackson

71

Mendonca

42

⚽🥅

40

64

58

68

⚽

Antoniuk

95

Ndakala

53

Masi

57

▼

Bah

52

▼

Fry

66

Aguilar

29

Becher

46

▼

Rakic

Manager: N. Dasovic

57'▲L. Fernandez-Salvador←▼T. Bah

78'▲J. Herdman←▼V. Fry

78'▲J. Hanson←▼F. Rakic

Vancouver Whitecaps II substitutes

47Fernandez-Salvador92Herdman76Hanson70Gough77Mann83Linder

Manager: C. Knowles

38'▲M. Khan←▼C. Montgomery

Minnesota United II substitutes

32Khan62Clark61Thao63Blay60Kniser35Smir