Minnesota United II 2–3 Vancouver Whitecaps II

Minnesota United II

FT

2 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Vancouver Whitecaps II

5/29/2025

MLS Next Pro · Round 15Allianz Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Minnesota United II49%

×Draw22%

Vancouver Whitecaps II30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Minnesota United IIExpected goals in this matchVancouver Whitecaps II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.02

1.54

Minnesota United II

2.02

Vancouver Whitecaps II

1.54

Minnesota United II creates 31% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 48 away

1.78

creates per match

1.44

1.64

allows per match

2.27

creates per match

Minnesota United II

1.78

Vancouver Whitecaps II

1.44

allows per match

Minnesota United II

1.64

Vancouver Whitecaps II

2.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Minnesota United II+0.00on par

Vancouver Whitecaps II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Minnesota United II ↓

Vancouver Whitecaps II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Minnesota United II or draw

70%

Minnesota United II or Vancouver Whitecaps II

78%

Draw or Vancouver Whitecaps II

51%

Winning margin

Minnesota United II wins by 2+

28%

Vancouver Whitecaps II wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Minnesota United II 1+ goals

87%

Minnesota United II 2+ goals

60%

Minnesota United II 3+ goals

33%

Vancouver Whitecaps II 1+ goals

79%

Vancouver Whitecaps II 2+ goals

45%

Vancouver Whitecaps II 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Minnesota United II (draw refunded)

62%

Vancouver Whitecaps II (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Minnesota United II at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.64 · 50 matches

Vancouver Whitecaps II away — creates 1.44, concedes 2.27 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Minnesota United II attack 1.78 + Vancouver Whitecaps II defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 2.02

Vancouver Whitecaps II attack 1.44 + Minnesota United II defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Minnesota United II scores more

49%

level

22%

Vancouver Whitecaps II scores more

30%

Minnesota United II at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Minnesota United II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff