Vancouver Rise W vs Montreal Roses W

Vancouver Rise W

Preview

02:00

Montreal Roses W

7/30/2026

Northern Super League

Big match

41%

Montreal Roses W

model favours

34%25%41%

Vancouver Rise W have scored in 8 games running

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

56%

over 2.5 goals

59%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Vancouver Rise W34%

×Draw25%

Montreal Roses W41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vancouver Rise WExpected goals in this matchMontreal Roses W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.53

Vancouver Rise W

1.38

Montreal Roses W

1.53

Montreal Roses W creates 11% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 19 away

1.71

creates per match

1.47

1.59

allows per match

1.05

creates per match

Vancouver Rise W

1.71

Montreal Roses W

1.47

allows per match

Vancouver Rise W

1.59

Montreal Roses W

1.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vancouver Rise W+0.00on par

Montreal Roses W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vancouver Rise W ↓

Montreal Roses W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Vancouver Rise W or draw

59%

Vancouver Rise W or Montreal Roses W

75%

Draw or Montreal Roses W

66%

Winning margin

Vancouver Rise W wins by 2+

16%

Montreal Roses W wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Vancouver Rise W 1+ goals

75%

Vancouver Rise W 2+ goals

40%

Vancouver Rise W 3+ goals

16%

Montreal Roses W 1+ goals

78%

Montreal Roses W 2+ goals

45%

Montreal Roses W 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Vancouver Rise W (draw refunded)

46%

Montreal Roses W (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vancouver Rise W at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.59 · 17 matches

Montreal Roses W away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.05 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vancouver Rise W attack 1.71 + Montreal Roses W defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.38

Montreal Roses W attack 1.47 + Vancouver Rise W defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Vancouver Rise W scores more

34%

level

25%

Montreal Roses W scores more

41%

Montreal Roses W at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Montreal Roses W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

69% of Vancouver Rise W’s matches go over 2.5 goals
Top-of-the-table clash — Vancouver Rise W 3 vs Montreal Roses W 1

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form

W

WLLD

W

WWLDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff