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Montreal Roses W vs Vancouver Rise W — Northern Super League 2026

Montreal Roses W
Montreal Roses W
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Vancouver Rise W
Vancouver Rise W
10/11/2025Northern Super LeagueNorthern Super League · Round 8Bois-de-Boulogne Sports Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Montreal Roses W46%
×Draw25%
Vancouver Rise W29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Montreal Roses W
1.61
Vancouver Rise W
1.24

Montreal Roses W creates 30% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 21 away

creates per match

Montreal Roses W
1.32
Vancouver Rise W
1.43

allows per match

Montreal Roses W
1.05
Vancouver Rise W
1.90

finishing

Montreal Roses W+0.00on par
Vancouver Rise W+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Montreal Roses W ↓

Vancouver Rise W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Montreal Roses W or draw
71%
Montreal Roses W or Vancouver Rise W
75%
Draw or Vancouver Rise W
54%

Winning margin

Montreal Roses W wins by 2+
24%
Vancouver Rise W wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Montreal Roses W 1+ goals
80%
Montreal Roses W 2+ goals
48%
Montreal Roses W 3+ goals
22%
Vancouver Rise W 1+ goals
71%
Vancouver Rise W 2+ goals
35%
Vancouver Rise W 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Montreal Roses W (draw refunded)
61%
Vancouver Rise W (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Montreal Roses W at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.05 · 19 matches

Vancouver Rise W away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.90 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Montreal Roses W attack 1.32 + Vancouver Rise W defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.61

Vancouver Rise W attack 1.43 + Montreal Roses W defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Montreal Roses W scores more
46%
level
25%
Vancouver Rise W scores more
29%

Montreal Roses W at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Montreal Roses W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Montreal Roses W vs Vancouver Rise W

Vancouver Rise W beat Montreal Roses W 1-0 in Northern Super League on October 11, 2025.

The match was played at Bois-de-Boulogne Sports Center in Laval, Québec.