Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Van vs West Armenia — Premier League 2019

Van
Van
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
West Armenia
West Armenia
3/16/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 23Charentsavan City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Van53%
×Draw23%
West Armenia24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Van
1.85
West Armenia
1.17

Van creates 58% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 31 away

creates per match

Van
1.31
West Armenia
0.90

allows per match

Van
1.43
West Armenia
2.39

finishing

Van+0.00on par
West Armenia+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Van ↓

West Armenia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Van or draw
76%
Van or West Armenia
77%
Draw or West Armenia
47%

Winning margin

Van wins by 2+
30%
West Armenia wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Van 1+ goals
84%
Van 2+ goals
55%
Van 3+ goals
28%
West Armenia 1+ goals
69%
West Armenia 2+ goals
33%
West Armenia 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Van (draw refunded)
69%
West Armenia (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Van at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.43 · 94 matches

West Armenia away — creates 0.90, concedes 2.39 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Van attack 1.31 + West Armenia defence 2.39 → ÷2 → 1.85

West Armenia attack 0.90 + Van defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Van scores more
53%
level
23%
West Armenia scores more
24%

Van at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Van will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Van 2–0 West Armenia

Van beat West Armenia 2-0 in Premier League on March 16, 2025.

The match was played at Charentsavan City Stadium in Charentsavan.