Van 4–3 Torpedo Yerevan: Result & Stats

Van

FT

4 – 3

Torpedo Yerevan

9/16/2019

First League · Round 7Charentsavan City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Van81%

×Draw11%

Torpedo Yerevan8%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VanExpected goals in this matchTorpedo Yerevan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.40

1.00

Van

3.40

Torpedo Yerevan

1.00

Van creates 240% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 14 away

3.29

creates per match

1.29

0.71

allows per match

3.50

creates per match

Van

3.29

Torpedo Yerevan

1.29

allows per match

Van

0.71

Torpedo Yerevan

3.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Van+0.00on par

Torpedo Yerevan+0.00on par

Total goals

Over80
Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Van ↓

Torpedo Yerevan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–11%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–04%

1–14%

1–22%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–19%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–07%

4–17%

4–24%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (9%) · grid covers 79% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

80%20%3.5

62%38%4.5

41%59%

Double chance

Van or draw

92%

Van or Torpedo Yerevan

89%

Draw or Torpedo Yerevan

19%

Winning margin

Van wins by 2+

63%

Torpedo Yerevan wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Van 1+ goals

96%

Van 2+ goals

84%

Van 3+ goals

64%

Torpedo Yerevan 1+ goals

63%

Torpedo Yerevan 2+ goals

26%

Torpedo Yerevan 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Van (draw refunded)

91%

Torpedo Yerevan (draw refunded)

9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Van at home — creates 3.29, concedes 0.71 · 14 matches

Torpedo Yerevan away — creates 1.29, concedes 3.50 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Van attack 3.29 + Torpedo Yerevan defence 3.50 → ÷2 → 3.40

Torpedo Yerevan attack 1.29 + Van defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 81%?"

Van scores more

81%

level

11%

Torpedo Yerevan scores more

8%

Van at 81% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 81% does not mean "Van will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff