Van 1–0 Pyunik Yerevan: Result & Stats

Van

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Pyunik Yerevan

3/8/2024

Premier League · Round 24Charentsavan City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

Van26%

×Draw25%

Pyunik Yerevan49%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VanExpected goals in this matchPyunik Yerevan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.08

1.59

Van

1.08

Pyunik Yerevan

1.59

Pyunik Yerevan creates 47% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 107 away

1.31

creates per match

1.75

1.43

allows per match

0.85

creates per match

Van

1.31

Pyunik Yerevan

1.75

allows per match

Van

1.43

Pyunik Yerevan

0.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Van+0.00on par

Pyunik Yerevan+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Van ↓

Pyunik Yerevan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–111%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Van or draw

51%

Van or Pyunik Yerevan

75%

Draw or Pyunik Yerevan

74%

Winning margin

Van wins by 2+

10%

Pyunik Yerevan wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Van 1+ goals

66%

Van 2+ goals

29%

Van 3+ goals

10%

Pyunik Yerevan 1+ goals

80%

Pyunik Yerevan 2+ goals

47%

Pyunik Yerevan 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Van (draw refunded)

34%

Pyunik Yerevan (draw refunded)

66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Van at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.43 · 94 matches

Pyunik Yerevan away — creates 1.75, concedes 0.85 · 107 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Van attack 1.31 + Pyunik Yerevan defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.08

Pyunik Yerevan attack 1.75 + Van defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Van scores more

26%

level

25%

Pyunik Yerevan scores more

49%

Pyunik Yerevan at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Pyunik Yerevan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff