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Pyunik Yerevan vs Van — Premier League 2019

Pyunik Yerevan
Pyunik Yerevan
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Van
Van
10/28/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 13Junior Sport Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 95+ matches

Pyunik Yerevan56%
×Draw24%
Van20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pyunik Yerevan
1.69
Van
0.91

Pyunik Yerevan creates 86% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 95 away

creates per match

Pyunik Yerevan
1.77
Van
0.85

allows per match

Pyunik Yerevan
0.96
Van
1.60

finishing

Pyunik Yerevan+0.00on par
Van+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pyunik Yerevan ↓

Van →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Pyunik Yerevan or draw
80%
Pyunik Yerevan or Van
76%
Draw or Van
44%

Winning margin

Pyunik Yerevan wins by 2+
31%
Van wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Pyunik Yerevan 1+ goals
82%
Pyunik Yerevan 2+ goals
50%
Pyunik Yerevan 3+ goals
24%
Van 1+ goals
60%
Van 2+ goals
23%
Van 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Pyunik Yerevan (draw refunded)
73%
Van (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pyunik Yerevan at home — creates 1.77, concedes 0.96 · 104 matches

Van away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.60 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pyunik Yerevan attack 1.77 + Van defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.69

Van attack 0.85 + Pyunik Yerevan defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Pyunik Yerevan scores more
56%
level
24%
Van scores more
20%

Pyunik Yerevan at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Pyunik Yerevan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Pyunik Yerevan 1–0 Van

Pyunik Yerevan beat Van 1-0 in Premier League on October 28, 2024.

The match was played at Junior Sport Stadium in Yerevan.