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Van vs FC Noah — Premier League 2019

Van
Van
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
FC Noah
FC Noah
12/2/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 15Charentsavan City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

Van33%
×Draw26%
FC Noah41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Van
1.25
FC Noah
1.41

FC Noah creates 13% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 105 away

creates per match

Van
1.31
FC Noah
1.39

allows per match

Van
1.43
FC Noah
1.20

finishing

Van+0.00on par
FC Noah+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Van ↓

FC Noah →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Van or draw
59%
Van or FC Noah
74%
Draw or FC Noah
67%

Winning margin

Van wins by 2+
14%
FC Noah wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Van 1+ goals
71%
Van 2+ goals
36%
Van 3+ goals
13%
FC Noah 1+ goals
76%
FC Noah 2+ goals
41%
FC Noah 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Van (draw refunded)
45%
FC Noah (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Van at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.43 · 94 matches

FC Noah away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.20 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Van attack 1.31 + FC Noah defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.25

FC Noah attack 1.39 + Van defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Van scores more
33%
level
26%
FC Noah scores more
41%

FC Noah at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "FC Noah will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Van vs FC Noah

Van and FC Noah drew 0-0 in Premier League on December 2, 2025.

The match was played at Charentsavan City Stadium in Charentsavan.