Van 2–3 Ararat-Armenia: Result & Stats

Van

FT

2 – 3

HT: 2 – 2

Ararat-Armenia

E. Bationo 45+9'

I. Okonkwo 9'

Z. Shaghoyan 48', 45'

M. Noubissi 16'

4/20/2025

Premier League · Round 27Charentsavan City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

Van26%

×Draw25%

Ararat-Armenia49%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VanExpected goals in this matchArarat-Armenia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.06

1.55

Van

1.06

Ararat-Armenia

1.55

Ararat-Armenia creates 46% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 107 away

1.31

creates per match

1.67

1.43

allows per match

0.80

creates per match

Van

1.31

Ararat-Armenia

1.67

allows per match

Van

1.43

Ararat-Armenia

0.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Van+0.00on par

Ararat-Armenia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Van ↓

Ararat-Armenia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–111%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Van or draw

51%

Van or Ararat-Armenia

75%

Draw or Ararat-Armenia

74%

Winning margin

Van wins by 2+

10%

Ararat-Armenia wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Van 1+ goals

65%

Van 2+ goals

29%

Van 3+ goals

9%

Ararat-Armenia 1+ goals

79%

Ararat-Armenia 2+ goals

46%

Ararat-Armenia 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Van (draw refunded)

35%

Ararat-Armenia (draw refunded)

65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Van at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.43 · 94 matches

Ararat-Armenia away — creates 1.67, concedes 0.80 · 107 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Van attack 1.31 + Ararat-Armenia defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.06

Ararat-Armenia attack 1.67 + Van defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Van scores more

26%

level

25%

Ararat-Armenia scores more

49%

Ararat-Armenia at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Ararat-Armenia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

12'

16'

45+6'

45'

45+9'

46'

A. Ambartsumyan← E. Ocansey

46'

A. Tera← H. Harutyunyan

48'

Z. Shaghoyan

72'

A. Sadoyan← M. Touré

72'

M. Odeyinka← D. Terteryan

72'

R. Hakobyan← S. Grigoryan

78'

U. Ajibona← K. Drammeh

80'

A. Nondi← M. Noubissi

80'

M. Gbomadu← J. Duarte

85'

J. Akila← Y. Matyukhin

88'

H. Hakobyan← Z. Shaghoyan

Van

Ararat-Armenia

▼

⚽

▼

Noubissi

▼

Ocansey

⚽2

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: V. Gevorgyan

72'▲A. Sadoyan←▼M. Touré

72'▲M. Odeyinka←▼D. Terteryan

72'▲R. Hakobyan←▼S. Grigoryan

78'▲U. Ajibona←▼K. Drammeh

85'▲J. Akila←▼Y. Matyukhin

Van substitutes

SadoyanOdeyinkaHakobyanAjibonaAkilaAyvazovDossoIdrisovSargsyanVardanyanVoskanyan

Manager: V. Minasyan

46'▲A. Ambartsumyan←▼E. Ocansey

46'▲A. Tera←▼H. Harutyunyan

80'▲A. Nondi←▼M. Noubissi

80'▲M. Gbomadu←▼J. Duarte

88'▲H. Hakobyan←▼Z. Shaghoyan

Ararat-Armenia substitutes

AmbartsumyanTeraNondiGbomaduHakobyanPavlovetsKucherAlaverdyanManasyanRomércioYenne

Premier League: Van 2–3 Ararat-Armenia

Ararat-Armenia beat Van 3-2 in Premier League on April 20, 2025.

Goals: I. Okonkwo (9'), M. Noubissi (16'), Z. Shaghoyan (45', 48'), E. Bationo (45+9').

The match was played at Charentsavan City Stadium in Charentsavan.

Van vs Ararat-Armenia — Premier League 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Premier League: Van 2–3 Ararat-Armenia