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Van vs Ani Yerevan — First League 2019

Van
Van
FT
5 – 0
Ani Yerevan
Ani Yerevan
10/16/2019First LeagueFirst League · Round 11Charentsavan City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Van84%
×Draw10%
Ani Yerevan6%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Van
3.61
Ani Yerevan
0.96

Van creates 276% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 14 away

creates per match

Van
3.29
Ani Yerevan
1.21

allows per match

Van
0.71
Ani Yerevan
3.93

finishing

Van+0.00on par
Ani Yerevan+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Van ↓

Ani Yerevan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–14%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–18%
4–24%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (9%) · grid covers 76% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
82%18%3.5
64%36%4.5
44%56%

Double chance

Van or draw
94%
Van or Ani Yerevan
90%
Draw or Ani Yerevan
16%

Winning margin

Van wins by 2+
67%
Ani Yerevan wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Van 1+ goals
97%
Van 2+ goals
87%
Van 3+ goals
67%
Ani Yerevan 1+ goals
62%
Ani Yerevan 2+ goals
25%
Ani Yerevan 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Van (draw refunded)
93%
Ani Yerevan (draw refunded)
7%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Van at home — creates 3.29, concedes 0.71 · 14 matches

Ani Yerevan away — creates 1.21, concedes 3.93 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Van attack 3.29 + Ani Yerevan defence 3.93 → ÷2 → 3.61

Ani Yerevan attack 1.21 + Van defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 84%?"

Van scores more
84%
level
10%
Ani Yerevan scores more
6%

Van at 84% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 84% does not mean "Van will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Van 5–0 Ani Yerevan

Van beat Ani Yerevan 5-0 in First League on October 16, 2019.

The match was played at Charentsavan City Stadium in Charentsavan.