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Van Pars Isfahan vs Shams Azar Qazvin — Azadegan League 2018

Van Pars Isfahan
Van Pars Isfahan
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Shams Azar Qazvin
Shams Azar Qazvin
11/6/2022Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 12Folād Shahr Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Van Pars Isfahan44%
×Draw29%
Shams Azar Qazvin27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Van Pars Isfahan
1.21
Shams Azar Qazvin
0.88

Van Pars Isfahan creates 38% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 30 away

creates per match

Van Pars Isfahan
1.44
Shams Azar Qazvin
1.13

allows per match

Van Pars Isfahan
0.63
Shams Azar Qazvin
0.97

finishing

Van Pars Isfahan+0.00on par
Shams Azar Qazvin+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Van Pars Isfahan ↓

Shams Azar Qazvin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Van Pars Isfahan or draw
73%
Van Pars Isfahan or Shams Azar Qazvin
71%
Draw or Shams Azar Qazvin
56%

Winning margin

Van Pars Isfahan wins by 2+
19%
Shams Azar Qazvin wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Van Pars Isfahan 1+ goals
70%
Van Pars Isfahan 2+ goals
34%
Van Pars Isfahan 3+ goals
12%
Shams Azar Qazvin 1+ goals
59%
Shams Azar Qazvin 2+ goals
22%
Shams Azar Qazvin 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Van Pars Isfahan (draw refunded)
62%
Shams Azar Qazvin (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Van Pars Isfahan at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.63 · 16 matches

Shams Azar Qazvin away — creates 1.13, concedes 0.97 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Van Pars Isfahan attack 1.44 + Shams Azar Qazvin defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.21

Shams Azar Qazvin attack 1.13 + Van Pars Isfahan defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Van Pars Isfahan scores more
44%
level
29%
Shams Azar Qazvin scores more
27%

Van Pars Isfahan at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Van Pars Isfahan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Van Pars Isfahan 2–2 Shams Azar Qazvin

Van Pars Isfahan and Shams Azar Qazvin drew 2-2 in Azadegan League on November 6, 2022.

The match was played at Folād Shahr Stadium in Fooladshahr.