Van Pars Isfahan vs Omid Vahdat

Van Pars Isfahan

CANC

10:45

Omid Vahdat

11/18/2022

Azadegan League · Round 14Folād Shahr Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Van Pars Isfahan91%

×Draw7%

Omid Vahdat2%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Van Pars IsfahanExpected goals in this matchOmid Vahdat

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.22

0.32

Van Pars Isfahan

3.22

Omid Vahdat

0.32

Van Pars Isfahan creates 906% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 3 away

1.44

creates per match

0.00

0.63

allows per match

5.00

creates per match

Van Pars Isfahan

1.44

Omid Vahdat

0.00

allows per match

Van Pars Isfahan

0.63

Omid Vahdat

5.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Van Pars Isfahan+0.00on par

Omid Vahdat+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No74
Yes26

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Van Pars Isfahan ↓

Omid Vahdat →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–11%

0–20%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–13%

1–21%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–016%

2–15%

2–21%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–017%

3–15%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–014%

4–14%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (17%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Van Pars Isfahan or draw

98%

Van Pars Isfahan or Omid Vahdat

93%

Draw or Omid Vahdat

9%

Winning margin

Van Pars Isfahan wins by 2+

75%

Omid Vahdat wins by 2+

0%

Team goals

Van Pars Isfahan 1+ goals

96%

Van Pars Isfahan 2+ goals

82%

Van Pars Isfahan 3+ goals

61%

Omid Vahdat 1+ goals

27%

Omid Vahdat 2+ goals

4%

Omid Vahdat 3+ goals

0%

Draw no bet

Van Pars Isfahan (draw refunded)

98%

Omid Vahdat (draw refunded)

2%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Van Pars Isfahan at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.63 · 16 matches

Omid Vahdat away — creates 0.00, concedes 5.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Van Pars Isfahan attack 1.44 + Omid Vahdat defence 5.00 → ÷2 → 3.22

Omid Vahdat attack 0.00 + Van Pars Isfahan defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 91%?"

Van Pars Isfahan scores more

91%

level

7%

Omid Vahdat scores more

2%

Van Pars Isfahan at 91% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 91% does not mean "Van Pars Isfahan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff