Van Pars Isfahan 2–1 Khooshe Talaee Saveh

Van Pars Isfahan

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Khooshe Talaee Saveh

5/23/2023

Azadegan League · Round 34Folād Shahr Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Van Pars Isfahan51%

×Draw29%

Khooshe Talaee Saveh20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Van Pars IsfahanExpected goals in this matchKhooshe Talaee Saveh

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

0.70

Van Pars Isfahan

1.29

Khooshe Talaee Saveh

0.70

Van Pars Isfahan creates 84% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 84 away

1.44

creates per match

0.77

0.63

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Van Pars Isfahan

1.44

Khooshe Talaee Saveh

0.77

allows per match

Van Pars Isfahan

0.63

Khooshe Talaee Saveh

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Van Pars Isfahan+0.00on par

Khooshe Talaee Saveh+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Van Pars Isfahan ↓

Khooshe Talaee Saveh →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–110%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Van Pars Isfahan or draw

80%

Van Pars Isfahan or Khooshe Talaee Saveh

71%

Draw or Khooshe Talaee Saveh

49%

Winning margin

Van Pars Isfahan wins by 2+

24%

Khooshe Talaee Saveh wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Van Pars Isfahan 1+ goals

72%

Van Pars Isfahan 2+ goals

37%

Van Pars Isfahan 3+ goals

14%

Khooshe Talaee Saveh 1+ goals

50%

Khooshe Talaee Saveh 2+ goals

16%

Khooshe Talaee Saveh 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Van Pars Isfahan (draw refunded)

71%

Khooshe Talaee Saveh (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Van Pars Isfahan at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.63 · 16 matches

Khooshe Talaee Saveh away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.15 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Van Pars Isfahan attack 1.44 + Khooshe Talaee Saveh defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.29

Khooshe Talaee Saveh attack 0.77 + Van Pars Isfahan defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Van Pars Isfahan scores more

51%

level

29%

Khooshe Talaee Saveh scores more

20%

Van Pars Isfahan at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Van Pars Isfahan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff