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Van Pars Isfahan vs Kheybar Khorramabad — Azadegan League 2018

Van Pars Isfahan
Van Pars Isfahan
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Kheybar Khorramabad
Kheybar Khorramabad
S. Hatami 29'
9/20/2022Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 5Folād Shahr Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Van Pars Isfahan42%
×Draw31%
Kheybar Khorramabad27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Van Pars Isfahan
1.11
Kheybar Khorramabad
0.83

Van Pars Isfahan creates 34% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 67 away

creates per match

Van Pars Isfahan
1.44
Kheybar Khorramabad
1.04

allows per match

Van Pars Isfahan
0.63
Kheybar Khorramabad
0.78

finishing

Van Pars Isfahan+0.00on par
Kheybar Khorramabad+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Van Pars Isfahan ↓

Kheybar Khorramabad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Van Pars Isfahan or draw
73%
Van Pars Isfahan or Kheybar Khorramabad
69%
Draw or Kheybar Khorramabad
58%

Winning margin

Van Pars Isfahan wins by 2+
17%
Kheybar Khorramabad wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Van Pars Isfahan 1+ goals
67%
Van Pars Isfahan 2+ goals
30%
Van Pars Isfahan 3+ goals
10%
Kheybar Khorramabad 1+ goals
56%
Kheybar Khorramabad 2+ goals
20%
Kheybar Khorramabad 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Van Pars Isfahan (draw refunded)
61%
Kheybar Khorramabad (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Van Pars Isfahan at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.63 · 16 matches

Kheybar Khorramabad away — creates 1.04, concedes 0.78 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Van Pars Isfahan attack 1.44 + Kheybar Khorramabad defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.11

Kheybar Khorramabad attack 1.04 + Van Pars Isfahan defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Van Pars Isfahan scores more
42%
level
31%
Kheybar Khorramabad scores more
27%

Van Pars Isfahan at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Van Pars Isfahan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

29'
S. Hatami

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Van Pars Isfahan 0–1 Kheybar Khorramabad

Kheybar Khorramabad beat Van Pars Isfahan 1-0 in Azadegan League on September 20, 2022.

Goals: S. Hatami (29').

The match was played at Folād Shahr Stadium in Fooladshahr.