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Valur W vs Slavia Praha W — UEFA Champions League Women 2019

Valur W
Valur W
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Slavia Praha W
Slavia Praha W
9/21/2022UEFA Champions League WomenUEFA Champions League Women · 2nd RoundOrigovöllurinn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Valur W52%
×Draw22%
Slavia Praha W27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Valur W
2.03
Slavia Praha W
1.41

Valur W creates 44% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 13 away

creates per match

Valur W
2.44
Slavia Praha W
1.38

allows per match

Valur W
1.44
Slavia Praha W
1.62

finishing

Valur W+0.00on par
Slavia Praha W+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Valur W ↓

Slavia Praha W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Valur W or draw
73%
Valur W or Slavia Praha W
78%
Draw or Slavia Praha W
48%

Winning margin

Valur W wins by 2+
30%
Slavia Praha W wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Valur W 1+ goals
87%
Valur W 2+ goals
60%
Valur W 3+ goals
33%
Slavia Praha W 1+ goals
76%
Slavia Praha W 2+ goals
41%
Slavia Praha W 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Valur W (draw refunded)
66%
Slavia Praha W (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Valur W at home — creates 2.44, concedes 1.44 · 9 matches

Slavia Praha W away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.62 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Valur W attack 2.44 + Slavia Praha W defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 2.03

Slavia Praha W attack 1.38 + Valur W defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Valur W scores more
52%
level
22%
Slavia Praha W scores more
27%

Valur W at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Valur W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA Champions League Women: Valur W 0–1 Slavia Praha W

Slavia Praha W beat Valur W 1-0 in UEFA Champions League Women on September 21, 2022.

The match was played at Origovöllurinn in Reykjavík.