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Valur W vs Shelbourne W — UEFA Champions League Women 2019

Valur W
Valur W
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Shelbourne W
Shelbourne W
8/21/2022UEFA Champions League WomenUEFA Champions League Women · 1st Round - FinalsMestni Štadion Fazanerija

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Valur W64%
×Draw20%
Shelbourne W15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Valur W
2.05
Shelbourne W
0.89

Valur W creates 130% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 3 away

creates per match

Valur W
2.44
Shelbourne W
0.33

allows per match

Valur W
1.44
Shelbourne W
1.67

finishing

Valur W+0.00on par
Shelbourne W+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Valur W ↓

Shelbourne W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Valur W or draw
85%
Valur W or Shelbourne W
80%
Draw or Shelbourne W
36%

Winning margin

Valur W wins by 2+
40%
Shelbourne W wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Valur W 1+ goals
87%
Valur W 2+ goals
61%
Valur W 3+ goals
33%
Shelbourne W 1+ goals
59%
Shelbourne W 2+ goals
22%
Shelbourne W 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Valur W (draw refunded)
81%
Shelbourne W (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Valur W at home — creates 2.44, concedes 1.44 · 9 matches

Shelbourne W away — creates 0.33, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Valur W attack 2.44 + Shelbourne W defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.05

Shelbourne W attack 0.33 + Valur W defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Valur W scores more
64%
level
20%
Shelbourne W scores more
15%

Valur W at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Valur W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA Champions League Women: Valur W 3–0 Shelbourne W

Valur W beat Shelbourne W 3-0 in UEFA Champions League Women on August 21, 2022.

The match was played at Mestni Štadion Fazanerija in Murska Sobota.