Valur W 10–0 Ljuboten W: Result & Stats

Valur W

FT

10 – 0

HT: 5 – 0

Ljuboten W

9/4/2024

UEFA Champions League Women · 1st Round - Semi-finalsSportpark Schreurserve

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Valur W92%

×Draw6%

Ljuboten W3%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Valur WExpected goals in this matchLjuboten W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

4.65

0.86

Valur W

4.65

Ljuboten W

0.86

Valur W creates 441% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 7 away

2.44

creates per match

0.29

1.44

allows per match

6.86

creates per match

Valur W

2.44

Ljuboten W

0.29

allows per match

Valur W

1.44

Ljuboten W

6.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Valur W+0.00on par

Ljuboten W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over89
Under11

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Valur W ↓

Ljuboten W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–00%

0–10%

0–20%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–02%

1–12%

1–21%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–05%

2–15%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–010%

4–18%

4–24%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 4–0 (10%) · grid covers 62% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

100%0%1.5

97%3%2.5

89%11%3.5

75%25%4.5

56%44%

Double chance

Valur W or draw

97%

Valur W or Ljuboten W

94%

Draw or Ljuboten W

8%

Winning margin

Valur W wins by 2+

80%

Ljuboten W wins by 2+

1%

Team goals

Valur W 1+ goals

99%

Valur W 2+ goals

93%

Valur W 3+ goals

81%

Ljuboten W 1+ goals

58%

Ljuboten W 2+ goals

21%

Ljuboten W 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Valur W (draw refunded)

97%

Ljuboten W (draw refunded)

3%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Valur W at home — creates 2.44, concedes 1.44 · 9 matches

Ljuboten W away — creates 0.29, concedes 6.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Valur W attack 2.44 + Ljuboten W defence 6.86 → ÷2 → 4.65

Ljuboten W attack 0.29 + Valur W defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 92%?"

Valur W scores more

92%

level

6%

Ljuboten W scores more

3%

Valur W at 92% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 92% does not mean "Valur W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff