Valur W 1–1 Glasgow City W: Result & Stats

Valur W

AET

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Glasgow City W

11/18/2020

UEFA Champions League Women · 2nd Qualifying RoundOrigovöllurinn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Valur W49%

×Draw24%

Glasgow City W27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Valur WExpected goals in this matchGlasgow City W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.15

Valur W

1.65

Glasgow City W

1.15

Valur W creates 43% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 7 away

2.44

creates per match

0.86

1.44

allows per match

0.86

creates per match

Valur W

2.44

Glasgow City W

0.86

allows per match

Valur W

1.44

Glasgow City W

0.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Valur W+0.00on par

Glasgow City W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Valur W ↓

Glasgow City W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Valur W or draw

73%

Valur W or Glasgow City W

76%

Draw or Glasgow City W

51%

Winning margin

Valur W wins by 2+

26%

Glasgow City W wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Valur W 1+ goals

81%

Valur W 2+ goals

49%

Valur W 3+ goals

23%

Glasgow City W 1+ goals

68%

Glasgow City W 2+ goals

32%

Glasgow City W 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Valur W (draw refunded)

65%

Glasgow City W (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Valur W at home — creates 2.44, concedes 1.44 · 9 matches

Glasgow City W away — creates 0.86, concedes 0.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Valur W attack 2.44 + Glasgow City W defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.65

Glasgow City W attack 0.86 + Valur W defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Valur W scores more

49%

level

24%

Glasgow City W scores more

27%

Valur W at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Valur W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff