Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Valur W vs Fomget Gençlik W — UEFA Champions League Women 2019

Valur W
Valur Wadvanced
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Fomget Gençlik W
Fomget Gençlik W
9/6/2023UEFA Champions League WomenUEFA Champions League Women · 1st Round - Semi-finalsStadiumi Loro Boriçi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Valur W36%
×Draw21%
Fomget Gençlik W43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Valur W
1.92
Fomget Gençlik W
2.12

Fomget Gençlik W creates 10% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 5 away

creates per match

Valur W
2.44
Fomget Gençlik W
2.80

allows per match

Valur W
1.44
Fomget Gençlik W
1.40

finishing

Valur W+0.00on par
Fomget Gençlik W+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Valur W ↓

Fomget Gençlik W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–28%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
57%43%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Valur W or draw
57%
Valur W or Fomget Gençlik W
79%
Draw or Fomget Gençlik W
64%

Winning margin

Valur W wins by 2+
19%
Fomget Gençlik W wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Valur W 1+ goals
85%
Valur W 2+ goals
57%
Valur W 3+ goals
30%
Fomget Gençlik W 1+ goals
88%
Fomget Gençlik W 2+ goals
62%
Fomget Gençlik W 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Valur W (draw refunded)
45%
Fomget Gençlik W (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Valur W at home — creates 2.44, concedes 1.44 · 9 matches

Fomget Gençlik W away — creates 2.80, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Valur W attack 2.44 + Fomget Gençlik W defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.92

Fomget Gençlik W attack 2.80 + Valur W defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 2.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Valur W scores more
36%
level
21%
Fomget Gençlik W scores more
43%

Fomget Gençlik W at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Fomget Gençlik W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA Champions League Women: Valur W 2–1 Fomget Gençlik W

Valur W beat Fomget Gençlik W 2-1 in UEFA Champions League Women on September 6, 2023.

The match was played at Stadiumi Loro Boriçi in Shkodër.