Valur Reykjavik 1–2 Thor Akureyri: Result & Stats

Valur Reykjavik

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Thor Akureyri

D. Gardarson 27'

I. Kristjansson 88'

C. Jakobsen 37'

4/12/2026

Úrvalsdeild · Round 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Valur Reykjavik69%

×Draw16%

Thor Akureyri15%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Valur ReykjavikExpected goals in this matchThor Akureyri

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.85

1.27

Valur Reykjavik

2.85

Thor Akureyri

1.27

Valur Reykjavik creates 124% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 7 away

2.28

creates per match

0.86

1.68

allows per match

3.43

creates per match

Valur Reykjavik

2.28

Thor Akureyri

0.86

allows per match

Valur Reykjavik

1.68

Thor Akureyri

3.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Valur Reykjavik+0.00on par

Thor Akureyri+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Valur Reykjavik ↓

Thor Akureyri →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–16%

1–24%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–05%

4–16%

4–24%

4–32%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

77%23%3.5

58%42%4.5

38%62%

Double chance

Valur Reykjavik or draw

85%

Valur Reykjavik or Thor Akureyri

84%

Draw or Thor Akureyri

31%

Winning margin

Valur Reykjavik wins by 2+

49%

Thor Akureyri wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Valur Reykjavik 1+ goals

94%

Valur Reykjavik 2+ goals

77%

Valur Reykjavik 3+ goals

53%

Thor Akureyri 1+ goals

72%

Thor Akureyri 2+ goals

36%

Thor Akureyri 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Valur Reykjavik (draw refunded)

82%

Thor Akureyri (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Valur Reykjavik at home — creates 2.28, concedes 1.68 · 25 matches

Thor Akureyri away — creates 0.86, concedes 3.43 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Valur Reykjavik attack 2.28 + Thor Akureyri defence 3.43 → ÷2 → 2.85

Thor Akureyri attack 0.86 + Valur Reykjavik defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Valur Reykjavik scores more

69%

level

16%

Thor Akureyri scores more

15%

Valur Reykjavik at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Valur Reykjavik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

27'

D. Gardarson

34'

I. Stole

37'

C. Jakobsen↳ E. Halldorsson

63'

M. Veldman← I. Stole

63'

A. Palsson← B. Heimisson

69'

E. Sigurbjornsson← A. Skoglund

72'

B. Brynjolfsson← S. Gunnarsson

72'

I. Atanga← A. Hlynsson

78'

A. Magnusson← C. Jakobsen

85'

I. Kristjansson← A. Sigurjonsson

85'

F. Gislason← S. Haugland

88'

I. Kristjansson↳ I. Atanga

Valur

Thor

1

15

19

5

2

7

▼

Sigurjons

25

⚽

▼

Jakobsen

8

A

Halldorss

37

▼

Gunnarsso

22

▼

Hlynsson

9

▼

Haugland

18

Schram

11

▼

21

15

3

22

▼

Heimisson

6

Antonsson

12

Haraldsso

14

▼

Skoglund

17

Heimisson

19

⚽

Gardarson

Manager: Hermann Hreidarsson

63'▲M. Veldman←▼I. Stole

63'▲A. Palsson←▼B. Heimisson

69'▲E. Sigurbjornsson←▼A. Skoglund

Valur Reykjavik substitutes

1Kristinsson33Hoti24Veldman20Omarsson23Palsson13Haagensen26Sigurbjornsson27Eiriksson66Kristjansson

Manager: Sigurdur Hoskuldsson

72'▲B. Brynjolfsson←▼S. Gunnarsson

72'▲I. Atanga←▼A. Hlynsson

78'▲A. Magnusson←▼C. Jakobsen

85'▲I. Kristjansson←▼A. Sigurjonsson

85'▲F. Gislason←▼S. Haugland

Thor Akureyri substitutes

28Lalic16Brynjolfsson23Kristjansson18Ingason17Gislason4Runarsson11Atanga10Magnusson31Fridriksson