Valur Reykjavik 1–2 Stjarnan: Result & Stats

Valur Reykjavik

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Stjarnan

L. Heimisson 17'

O. Eggertsson 33'

A. Bjarnason 12'

9/14/2025

Úrvalsdeild · Round 22N1-völlurinn Hlíðarenda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Valur Reykjavik44%

×Draw22%

Stjarnan34%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Valur ReykjavikExpected goals in this matchStjarnan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.90

1.67

Valur Reykjavik

1.90

Stjarnan

1.67

Valur Reykjavik creates 14% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 23 away

2.28

creates per match

1.65

1.68

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Valur Reykjavik

2.28

Stjarnan

1.65

allows per match

Valur Reykjavik

1.68

Stjarnan

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Valur Reykjavik+0.00on par

Stjarnan+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Valur Reykjavik ↓

Stjarnan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

48%52%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Valur Reykjavik or draw

66%

Valur Reykjavik or Stjarnan

78%

Draw or Stjarnan

56%

Winning margin

Valur Reykjavik wins by 2+

24%

Stjarnan wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Valur Reykjavik 1+ goals

85%

Valur Reykjavik 2+ goals

56%

Valur Reykjavik 3+ goals

29%

Stjarnan 1+ goals

81%

Stjarnan 2+ goals

50%

Stjarnan 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Valur Reykjavik (draw refunded)

56%

Stjarnan (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Valur Reykjavik at home — creates 2.28, concedes 1.68 · 25 matches

Stjarnan away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.52 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Valur Reykjavik attack 2.28 + Stjarnan defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.90

Stjarnan attack 1.65 + Valur Reykjavik defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Valur Reykjavik scores more

44%

level

22%

Stjarnan scores more

34%

Valur Reykjavik at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Valur Reykjavik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

B. Heimisson

12'

A. Bjarnason

17'

L. Heimisson↳ S. Agustsson

31'

G. Nokkvason

32'

S. Tufegdzic

32'

J. Elisabetarson

33'

O. Eggertsson↳ B. Waren

62'

J. Jonsson

73'

B. Gudlaugsson← A. Bjarnason

76'

H. Gunnarsson← M. Lundemo

76'

A. Palsson← A. Skoglund

78'

S. Fridjonsson

79'

A. Palsson

86'

S. Stefansson← K. Sigurdsson

86'

B. Jonsson← J. Palsson

87'

S. T. Ingimarsson← J. Gunnarsson

90'

S. Fridjonsson

90'

S. Fridjonsson

Valur

Stjarnan

12

15

32

10

5

44

8

▼

Gunnarsso

7

⚽

Eggertsso

99

⚽

▼

Bjarnason

18

Nokkvason

23

A

Waren

25

A

Agustsson

21

▼

5

4

6

10

▼

Sigurdsso

8

Jonsson

22

▼

Lundemo

12

Haraldsso

14

▼

Skoglund

17

⚽

Heimisson

Manager: Srdjan Tufegdzic

76'▲H. Gunnarsson←▼M. Lundemo

76'▲A. Palsson←▼A. Skoglund

86'▲S. Stefansson←▼K. Sigurdsson

86'▲B. Jonsson←▼J. Palsson

Valur Reykjavik substitutes

1Kristinsson3Gunnarsson11Larusson13Kristjansson16Stefansson23Palsson30Kjeld33Hoti97Jonsson

Manager: Þórarinn Ingi Valdimarsson

73'▲B. Gudlaugsson←▼A. Bjarnason

87'▲S. T. Ingimarsson←▼J. Gunnarsson

Stjarnan substitutes

1Birnuson4Thorisson6Ingimarsson11Birgisson20Conteh24Jonsson28Gudlaugsson78Hauksson45Jonsson

Match Recap: Valur Reykjavik vs Stjarnan

Stjarnan beat Valur Reykjavik 2-1 in Úrvalsdeild on September 14, 2025.

Goals: A. Bjarnason (12'), L. Heimisson (17'), O. Eggertsson (33').

The match was played at N1-völlurinn Hlíðarenda in Reykjavík.

Valur Reykjavik vs Stjarnan — Úrvalsdeild 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Valur Reykjavik vs Stjarnan