Valur Reykjavik vs Breidablik — Úrvalsdeild 2025
Úrvalsdeild · Round 7Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 22+ matches
Valur Reykjavik45%
Breidablik34%✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Valur Reykjavik creates 16% more chances
Season form · 25 home / 22 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over71
- Under29
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes71
- No29
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Valur Reykjavik ↓
Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Valur Reykjavik at home — creates 2.28, concedes 1.68 · 25 matches
Breidablik away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.68 · 22 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Valur Reykjavik attack 2.28 + Breidablik defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.98
Breidablik attack 1.73 + Valur Reykjavik defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.71
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 45%?"
Valur Reykjavik at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 45% does not mean "Valur Reykjavik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Valur Reykjavik substitutes
Breidablik substitutes
Vikingur ReykjavikValur Reykjavik
StjarnanBreidablik
FH hafnarfjordur
Fram Reykjavik
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
KA Akureyri
Vestri
KR Reykjavik
IA Akranes
AftureldingIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Valur Reykjavik host Breidablik on Sunday, 17 May 2026 at 18:15. The match is part of the Úrvalsdeild 2025/2026 season.
Úrvalsdeild: Valur Reykjavik 3–2 Breidablik
Valur Reykjavik beat Breidablik 3-2 in Úrvalsdeild on May 17, 2026.
Goals: A. Palsson (17'), A. Thorsteinsson (55'), A. Bjarnason (80'), I. Stole (84'), I. Arnason (90' o.g.).