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Valtti vs LJS — Suomen Cup 2018

Valtti
Valtti
FT
2 – 1
LJS
LJS
3/8/2024Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 1st RoundTöölön Pallokenttä 6 tn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Valtti12%
×Draw19%
LJS70%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Valtti
0.75
LJS
2.17

LJS creates 189% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

creates per match

Valtti
0.50
LJS
2.33

allows per match

Valtti
2.00
LJS
1.00

finishing

Valtti+0.00on par
LJS+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Valtti ↓

LJS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–112%
0–213%
0–39%
0–45%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–13%
2–24%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (13%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Valtti or draw
30%
Valtti or LJS
81%
Draw or LJS
88%

Winning margin

Valtti wins by 2+
3%
LJS wins by 2+
45%

Team goals

Valtti 1+ goals
53%
Valtti 2+ goals
17%
Valtti 3+ goals
4%
LJS 1+ goals
89%
LJS 2+ goals
64%
LJS 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

Valtti (draw refunded)
14%
LJS (draw refunded)
86%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Valtti at home — creates 0.50, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

LJS away — creates 2.33, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Valtti attack 0.50 + LJS defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.75

LJS attack 2.33 + Valtti defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Valtti scores more
12%
level
19%
LJS scores more
70%

LJS at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "LJS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Valtti 2 – 1 LJS

Valtti beat LJS 2-1 in Suomen Cup on March 8, 2024.

The match was played at Töölön Pallokenttä 6 tn in Helsinki.